ABIO10 PGTW 291800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/291800Z-301800ZJAN2023// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291351ZJAN2023// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.4N 94.8E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291513Z ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS) TO THE NORTH OF THE ASSESSED LLC, WITH POCKETS OF 30 KT WIND BARBS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (27-28 C), AND OFFSET WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, AN AMPLIFIED MADDEN- JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) EVENT OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS PRESENT AND CONTRIBUTING TO INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. THAT ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 29JAN23 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9S 47.6E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 291500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 95.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 94.8E, APPROXIMATELY 173 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS INDICATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1006MB. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25KTS) OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, AN AMPLIFIED MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) EVENT OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS PRESENT AND CONTRIBUTING TO INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. THAT ALONG WITH SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN