ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/231800Z-
241800ZJAN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZJAN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 08S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.0S 45.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 43.8E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 231452Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SMALL POCKETS OF DEEP 
CONVECTION AND WELL-ORGANIZED RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SST, MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, AND 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 08S 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FURTHER INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND 
REINTENSIFY AS HIGH-PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD AND PROVIDE 
INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 
PGTW 231400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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