WTXS21 PGTW 231400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 08S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 195 NM RADIUS OF 20.5S 43.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.6S 43.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 08S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.4S 44.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6S 43.8E, APPROXIMATELY 222 
NM ENE OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED JUST 
OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. A 231022Z AMSR2 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE NAKED 
CIRCULATION, AND FLARING CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEAR-OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENT 
FOR REGENERATION AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (5-10) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND ZESTY (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE ONLY INHIBITOR AT PRESENT IS THE PROXIMITY TO 
LAND. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 08S WILL SLOWLY MEANDER TO THE NORTHWEST 
UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO 
THE SOUTH AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM 
MOVES FURTHER INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND AWAY FROM LAND, IT IS 
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INTENISFY TO WARNING CRITERIA UNDER OPTIMAL 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
241400Z.
//
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