ABIO10 PGTW 230130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/230130Z-231800ZJAN2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 08S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.0S 45.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 44.8E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232211Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT 
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT 
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (29-30C) 
SST, MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 
DUE TO A COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY, A PERSISTENT NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AND TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO 
THE SOUTH, THERE EXISTS A MODERATE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN MODEL 
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, WHEN TAKEN HOLISTICALLY THE PREPONDERANCE OF 
EVIDENCE INDICATES 08S WILL TRACK BACK OVER WATER AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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