ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/221800Z-
231800ZJAN2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 08S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.0S 45.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 44.2E, APPROXIMATELY 193 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED 
IMAGERY AND A 221227Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS DEPICT FLARING 
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A POORLY DEFINED LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEAL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SST, MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, AND 
GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THOUGH GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY 
AGREE THAT 08S WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY, A COMPLEX AND 
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS RESULTING IN A DISAGREEMENT IN FORECAST 
TRACK AND THEREFOR DOWNSTEAM INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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