WTPS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 162.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 162.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 22.4S 163.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 23.1S 163.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 162.8E.
21JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST. A 
202238Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER IMAGE INDICATES THAT 30-35 KT WINDS 
PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AS EVIDENCED BY THE FULLY 
EXPOSED APPEARANCE IN MSI IMAGERY, COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR HAS 
INFILTRATED THE CIRCULATION AS WELL AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. THESE FACTORS ARE QUICKLY DOMINATING THE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH 
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. 10P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY 
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL 
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 12, 10P WILL BE PREPARING FOR A 
SHARP POLEWARD SHIFT, AS A RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN. THE SYSTEM 
WILL DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 12 AND BEGIN A POLEWARD TRACK, CONTINUING 
TO WEAKEN BY TAU 24 AND BEYOND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 10P WILL MAINTAIN COURSE THROUGH TAU 12 AFTER WHICH 
THE SYSTEM TURNS POLEWARD. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS 
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM 
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 16 FEET.
//
NNNN