WTPS21 PGTW 200200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P) REISSUED// REF/A/ JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190152ZJAN2023// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.7S 157.7E TO 21.7S 163.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 157.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 155.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 157.7E, APPROXIMATELY 534 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH WEAK LINEAR BANDING. A 192259Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE FURTHER REVEALS WEAK LINEAR BANDING WITH BROAD CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH DIFFLUENT SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (28-29C). DESPITE THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE WINDS TO GALE-FORCE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 190200). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 210200Z. // NNNN