ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZJAN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZJAN2023//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190152ZJAN2023//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19JAN23 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IRENE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.6S 169.3E, APPROXIMATELY 127 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, 
VANUATU, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 190300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.1S 48.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED 
TO THE EAST. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL RAIN BANDS 
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER JUST EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. RECENT 
OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND REPORT WINDS AT 25-30 KNOTS AND 
PRESSURE AS LOW AS 996MB WITH 999MB BEING THE AVERAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) 
VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92P 
WILL DEVELOP GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AS IT TRACKS 
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 190200) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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