ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZJAN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZJAN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.4S 55.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 54.6E, APPROXIMATELY 715 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 
171428Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ON 
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC.  A 
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWS 25-30KT WINDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO STRONG (30-40KT) VWS, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL RETROGRADE TO THE EAST 
AS IT INTERACTS WITH INVEST 96S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7S 62.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 60.0E, APPROXIMATELY 423 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 
171426Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT DEEP FLARING CONVECTIVE 
BANDING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY 
OBSCURED AND CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWS 
25-30KT WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS INDICATED BY MODERATE 
(15-20KT) VWS, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
96S WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND DEEPEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH 
90S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 170800) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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