ABPW10 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171500Z-180600ZJAN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171451ZJAN2023
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.0S 158.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 159.4E, APPROXIMATELY 499 NM 
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DISPLAYS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. AN 
171051Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS PROVIDED GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL 
POSITION AND SHOWED THAT THE WIND FIELD IS STRENGTHENING, AT LEAST ON 
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE CENTER, WITH 30-33 KNOT WINDS 
PRESENT ABOUT 75NM NORTH OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND MARGINAL (15-25KT) VWS. 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) 
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE CURRENTLY A EXPERIENCING A FAIR 
AMOUNT OF AXIS TILT, THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL 
QUICKLY SYMMETERIZE AND COMMENCE INTENSIFICATION SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE 
LATEST COAMPS-TC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE, AS WELL AS THE HWRF, 
INDICATE A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BETWEEN NEW CALEDONIA AND VANUATU. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 171500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH//
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