ABIO10 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/170900Z-171800ZJAN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZJAN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.2S 57.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 55.3E, APPROXIMATELY 668 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY. A 170241Z SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS 25 KT WINDS TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT LIGHTER WINDS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS 90S HAS AN EXTREMELY 
MARGINAL VWS BUBBLE AT 15-20KT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29C), AND POOR POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 90S AND 96S ARE UNDERGOING A BINARY INTERACTION 
WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH 96S BEING THE STRONGER TWIN AND ABSORBING 90S 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE HEADING TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.4S 64.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 62.1E, APPROXIMATELY 531 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND AN 170335 89GHZ AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO AN AMBIGUOUS, BUT CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), LOW VWS (10-15KT) AND 
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH 96S TRACKING WESTWARD WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND 
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 170800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO A LOW 
AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO A HIGH//
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