ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/151800Z-161800ZJAN2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.8S 79.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 77.8E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
WEAK CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST. A 151312Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE 
REVEALS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH WEAK FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE 
CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY VWS, AND WARM (28-
29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE FORMATION OF INVEST 
96S AS WELL AS 90S, HOWEVER THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT 96S WILL HAVE 
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MEANDERS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.0S 61.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 60.0E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND FLARING 
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. A 151454Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY 
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A BROAD LLC. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS 
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST DAY WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND PERSISTENT BROAD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR WILL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SST VALUES 
REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE 
THE FORMATION OF INVEST 90S AS WELL AS INVEST 96S, WHICH IS 1000NM TO 
THE EAST, HOWEVER, THE 15/1200Z GFS RUN INDICATES 90S WILL BECOME THE 
DOMINANT SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. ECMWF 
(15/0600Z RUN) FAVORS INVEST 96S BUT INDICATES A SIMILAR TRACK TOWARD 
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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