ABIO10 PGTW 141930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/141930Z-151800ZJAN2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.6S 80.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 79.8E, APPROXIMATELY 438 NM EAST 
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED 
TO THE WEST. A 141508Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS WEAK CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOOSELY DEFINED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE 
CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS A 
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 20 KNOTS WINDS IN THE 
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND A SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS JUST TO 
THE WEST OF THE LLCC. INVEST 96S IS CURRENTLY UNDER AN AREA OF 
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VWS, HOWEVER STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SST REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY 
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE TAKING ON A WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.0S 
61.7E, APPROXIMATELY 662 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 
141700Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A DEFINED BUT ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC. 90S HAS LIMITED OUTFLOW ALOFT BUT LOW (10-
15KT) VWS AND WARM (28-29C) SST ARE CONDUCIVE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT MEANDERS 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AS LOW.//
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