ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/141800Z-
151800ZJAN2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.6S 80.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 79.8E, APPROXIMATELY 438 NM EAST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE 
WEST. A 141508Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A LOOSELY DEFINED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION 
OFFSET TO THE WEST. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED 
CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 20 KNOTS WINDS IN THE NORTHERN AND 
SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND A SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE 
LLCC. INVEST 96S IS CURRENTLY UNDER AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) 
VWS, HOWEVER STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SST 
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 96S WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE 
TAKING ON A WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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