ABPW10 PGTW 081730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/081730Z-090600ZJAN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751ZJAN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08JAN23 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HALE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 25.4S 168.0E, APPROXIMATELY 224 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONI, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 080900) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.5S 
177.8E, APPROXIMATELY 384 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI. REANALYSIS OF 
OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS THAT INVEST 95P 
MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED 35 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SMAP 
PASS FROM 080642Z SHOWED A SMALL PATCH OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND A LATER 080734Z GPM 37GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.  HOWEVER, SUBSEQUENT 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWED THE SYSTEM BECOMING 
INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER, 
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS UP TO THE PRESENT TIME, THE SYSTEM HAS 
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOWER SHEAR, WITH THE CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATING 
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM AT 081500Z. BY 
081700Z, AS WE APPROACH THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, A SYMMETRICAL 
BLOOM OF CONVECTION HAS ONCE MORE FIRED UP OVER THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FIXES REMAIN AT 
T1.0 (25 KNOTS) BUT ARE NOT LIKELY HANDLING THE SYSTEM WELL DUE TO ITS 
SMALL SIZE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING WITH DEPICTING 95P AND 
ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THE STRONGER WIND FIELD AS INDICATED BY THE 
SCATTEROMETER AND SMAP.  OVERALL, MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM OFF TO 
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LARGE 
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 07P TO 
THE WEST.  HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY 
INTENSIFICATION, WHICH IS CLEARLY OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO 
FLIRT WITH THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD AT VARIOUS TIMES OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR TWO, ESPECIALLY NEAR DIURNAL MAXIMUM, BEFORE IT MOVES OVER 
COOLER WATERS AND MERGES WITH THE DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM TO 
THE SOUTH, BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR 
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS AT A TIME MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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