WTPS21 PGTW 061400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.7S 151.1E TO 22.2S 155.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.9S 151.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.9S 149.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 151.4, APPROXIMATELY 308 NM 
NORTHWEST OF CATO ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD, FRAGMENTED BUT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE BAND 
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT 93P IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND 
WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OFFSET BY MEDIUM TO HIGH (20-25KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL 
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
071400Z.//
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