ABPW10 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051400Z-060600ZJAN2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.2N 110.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 109.3E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH. ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A   
BROAD AREA OF FLARING AND DEEPENING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) WIND SHEAR, 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (26-27C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK 
WESTWARD AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODELS 
ALSO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND BURST THROUGHOUT THE REGION 
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE UPWARDS OF 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF 
96W AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE COMING 
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.1S 142.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 144.9E, APPROXIMATELY 122 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER 
LAND, MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER WATER. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND 
EMERGE OVER THE CORAL SEA WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM//
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