ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZJAN2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.8N 111.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICT A FULLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A 
BROAD AREA OF FLARING AND DEEPENING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) WIND SHEAR, 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (26-27C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK 
WESTWARD AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODELS 
ALSO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND BURST THROUGHOUT THE REGION 
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE UPWARDS OF 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF 
96W AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE COMING 
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0S 141.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 142.1E, APPROXIMATELY 222 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND 
LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT 
ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER WATER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND EMERGE OVER THE CORAL SEA 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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