ABPW10 PGTW 050330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/050330Z-050600ZJAN2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA)
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.4N 113.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 111.3E, APPROXIMATELY 272 NM EAST 
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 041100Z HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A BROAD AREA OF FLARING AND DEEPENING 
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 
KNOT) WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (26-27C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W 
WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 
NUMERICAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND BURST 
THROUGHOUT THE REGION WHICH IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE UPWARDS OF 30 KNOT 
WINDS TO THE WEST OF 96W AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA 
SEA OVER THE COMING DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.0S 
141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN 
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, 
MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE 
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER WATER. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND EMERGE 
OVER THE CORAL SEA WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AND 
UPDATED POSITION IN PARA 1.B.(1).//
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