ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/021800Z-
031800ZJAN2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 06S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.8S 127.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 294 NM EAST 
OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, 
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
UNFAVORABLE AT THE MOMENT DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) 
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, GOOD UPPER-
LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD AID IN SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE 
SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE AND POSSIBLY OVER WATER. COASTAL 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 
A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS BROOME WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE 
NEXT 2-3 DAYS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF OVER-WATER TRACK AFTER ABOUT 
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN