ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/241800Z-
251800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.8N 85.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 82.9E, APPROXIMATELY 132 NM NORTHEAST 
OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF TO 
THE NORTHEAST, LEAVING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 241422Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A BROAD AND 
RELATIVELY WEAK LLCC JUST NORTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, DEVOID OF ANY 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 98B IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH 
(20-25 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (27-28C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98B 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SRI LANKA OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND 
INTERACTION. HOWEVER, SOME GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF 
REDEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER WARM WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST 
OF SRI LANKA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24DEC22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
13.1S 83.5E, APPROXIMATELY 743 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD 
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 241500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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