ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/231800Z-
241800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.2N 84.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 85.4E, APPROXIMATELY 329 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED EIR AND A 231139Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST 
OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. ANALYSIS INDICATES 98B IS IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOT) 
VWS OFFSET BY DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98B WILL CONTINUE 
TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23DEC22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.4S 83.8E, APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 135 KNOTS GUSTING TO 165 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 231500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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