ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/221800Z-
231800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZDEC2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZDEC2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.2N 84.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 84.3E, APPROXIMATELY 313 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLC THAT 
IS BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. ANALYSIS INDICATES 98B IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 
(20-25 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY PREDOMINATELY POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND 
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 98B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING DUE TO HIGH VWS(25-30KNOT) 
THE CLOSER IT GETS TO SRI LANKA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22DEC22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.0S 87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 948 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
140 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 220900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 22DEC22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ELLIE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
13.3S 129.8E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD 
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. 
SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN