ABIO10 PGTW 220230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/220230Z-221800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211951ZDEC2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
AMPN/REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.2N 85.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 357 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD LLC PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST 
OF FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. ANALYSIS 
INDICATES 98B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY; HOWEVER, THE 
INCREASING VWS WILL LIKELY HINDER DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21DEC22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.2S 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1040 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 130 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 160 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 212100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.8S 128.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 129.5E, APPROXIMATELY 98 NM 
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT AND CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION 
THAT IS SHEARED WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS 
INDICATES 90S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SST IN THE TIMOR SEA 
OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL MOVE MORE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
AND POSSIBLY INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA AS IT TRACKS INTO AN AREA 
OF FAVORABLE VWS JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF JOSEPH 
BONAPARTE GULF. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 
220200Z) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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