ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.8N 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 85.4E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST 
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD LLC PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 
FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. ANALYSIS 
INDICATES 98B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY; HOWEVER, THE 
INCREASING VWS WILL LIKELY HINDER DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21DEC22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.8S 89.8E, APPROXIMATELY 1148 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 130 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 160 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 210900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.8S 128.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 128.7E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM 
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN LLC OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED FLARING 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90S IS IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOT) VWS 
OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SSTS ARE VERY WARM (30-31C). GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND POSSIBLY INTENSIFY 
RAPIDLY, ALBEIT FOR A SHORT DURATION, AS IT TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF 
FAVORABLE VWS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN