ABIO10 PGTW 210200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/210200Z-211800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8N 
86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED EIR 
AND A 201942Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LLC PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED 
TO THE NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 98B IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
(10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY HOWEVER, THE INCREASING VWS WILL LIKELY HINDER 
DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20DEC22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.2S 92.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1225 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 130 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
160 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 202100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8S 
128.1E, APPROXIMATELY 193 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS AN LLC OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED FLARING 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90S IS IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 
KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SSTS ARE VERY WARM (30-31C) 
WITH VERY HIGH OHC ABOVE 180 KJ/CM2. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS AND POSSIBLY INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF 
DECREASING VWS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE KIMBERLEY COAST.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN 1.B.(1) AND MEDIUM 
AREA IN 2.B.(1).//
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