ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171752ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.3S 93.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 93.1E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST 
OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 171549Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20 
TO 25 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS AND MODERATE (28-
29C) SSTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE ENHANCING RADIAL OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL CONTINUE 
TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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