WTXS21 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171021Z DEC 22//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6S 93.1E TO 13.6S 93.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171415Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 93.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.3S 93.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 93.1E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST 
OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 171549Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20 
TO 25 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS AND MODERATE (28-
29C) SSTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE ENHANCING RADIAL OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL CONTINUE 
TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 171030).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
181800Z.//
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