WTXS21 PGTW 171030 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6S 93.3E TO 14.3S 92.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 92.9E. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 95.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 92.9E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170702Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS AND HIGH (28-29C) SSTS WTIH AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE ENHANCING RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 181030Z.// NNNN