ABIO10 PGTW 171030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/171030Z-171800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171021ZDEC2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.1S 95.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 92.9E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 170702Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING 
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS AND 
HIGH (28-29C) SSTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE ENHANCING RADIAL 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL 
REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 171030) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B (1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN