ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/161800Z-
171800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16DEC22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
13.6N 64.5E, APPROXIMATELY 523 NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, AND HAD 
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A 
(WTIO31 PGTW 160900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.6S 91.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 95.5E, APPROXIMATELY 199 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS A SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-
15KTS) VWS AND HIGH (28-29C) SSTS BUT WITH LIMITED OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY BETWEEN 
8.0S AND 10.0S AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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