ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/151800Z-
161800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15DEC22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
14.1N 66.5E, APPROXIMATELY 581 NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, AND HAD 
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 151500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.6S 91.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 312 NM NORTHWEST 
OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS CONVECTION SHEARED TO 
THE WEST OF AN EXPOSED LLC, AS EVIDENCED IN A 151539Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS 
INVEST 98S HAS BEEN SUBJECTED TO HIGH (30-40KT) VWS BUT OFFSET BY THE 28-
29C SSTS AND DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK BETWEEN 8.0S AND 10.0S TO CONTINUE ITS 
MARINATING PROCESS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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