ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140521ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.3N 70.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 69.2E, APPROXIMATELY 387 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED EIR AND A 141345Z SSMIS 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 
CONSOLIDATED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), MODERATE 
VWS (15-20 KT) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97A HAS SEEN ITS BEST DAYS AND WILL FIGHT 
AGAINST INCREASING VWS AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 140530) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.3S 95.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 296 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS DEEP 
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A CONSOLIDATED LLC AS EVIDENCED 
BY A 141711Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO 
STRONG (20-30KT) VWS OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-
29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL 
TRACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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