ABIO10 PGTW 140530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/140530Z-141800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140521ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1N 71.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 70.5E, APPROXIMATELY 363 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT FLARING 
CONVECTION. A 140046Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE 
BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A LARGELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28C), MODERATE VWS (15-20 KT) AND POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 97A TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 140530) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5S 96.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 95.8E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. 
ANALYSIS INDICATES 98S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30KT) EASTERLY VWS 
OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND 
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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