WTIO21 PGTW 140530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N 71.0E TO 13.8N 63.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 132307Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 70.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1N 71.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 70.5E, APPROXIMATELY 363 NM SSW OF 
MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY 
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION. A 140046Z SSMIS 
91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS WRAPPING 
INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A LARGELY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28C), MODERATE 
VWS (15-20 KT) AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH 97A TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION 
IN THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
150530Z.
//
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