ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/131800Z-
141800ZDEC2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.6N 
71.8E, APPROXIMATELY 311 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM 
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 97A WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD, SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY, 
THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS VWS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5S 96.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 95.8E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANALYSIS INDICATES 
98S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30KT) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98S 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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