ABPW10 PGTW 101530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101530Z-110600ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101500ZDEC2022.//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  
NEAR 14.4N 124.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY  
232 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED BENEATH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE 
NORTHWEST. A 101228Z ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETER PARTIAL PASS PAINTS A 
BETTER PICTURE OF THE EASTERN HALF OF 92W WITH 20-25 KNOTS WINDS ON THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY FLOWING INTO THE SUSPECTED LLCC, AND 15-20 KNOTS 
FLOWING INTO THAT LLCC FROM THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE 
ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS ON 92W 
CONTINUING ON A NORTHEASTERLY HEADING AND REMAINING IN FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A 
STEADY INTENSIFICATION PROCESS UP TO A LOW END TROPICAL STORM, THEN A 
GRADUAL TAPERING OFF BEYOND TAU 48 AFTER WHICH SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED 
TO DRAMATICALLY RISE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 101500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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