ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZDEC2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.7N 128.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.9E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST 
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH   FLARING CONVECTION IN A 
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE ABOVE PROVIDING 
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (05-10KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL 
SLOWLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PROTECTION OF EASTERN LUZON AND 
GAIN A SHORT WINDOW OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THE AID OF A SURGE EVENT BEFORE 
THAT SAID EVENT HINDERS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 
36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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