ABIO10 PGTW 070830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/070830Z-071800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.5N 86.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 85.7E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATED PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE WRAPPING 
OCCURRING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 070405Z ASCAT 
METOP-B SCATTEROMETER PARTIAL PASS REVEALED A VAST WIND FIELD WITH LARGE 
SWATHS OF 25-30 KNOTS WITH 35 KNOTS EMBEDDED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 
LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND HIGH (30-40KT) 
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96B WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING 
UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS DESPITE HAVING 
TO FIGHT AGAINST THE INTENSE VWS AND DRY AIR SEEPING IN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE 
REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 070800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9S 65.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TCFA FOR AREA IN 1.B.(1) AND 
DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
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