ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZDEC2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.7N 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 434 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 
061211Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT DEEP FLARING CONVECTIVE 
BANDS WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALED A 
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE 
LLCC, AND PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE POSITION AND 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR,  GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM 
WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD CHENNAI, INDIA. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.9S 
65.1E, APPROXIMATELY 486 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 061347Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE 
PASS DEPICTS SPARSE CONVECTION AROUND A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK 
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, WEAK (5-10KT) VWS, AND WARM (27-28C) SST. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TOWARD 
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR WITH A WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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