WTIO21 PGTW 060800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5N 89.2E TO 10.2N 83.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.6N 89.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.7N 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 608 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS 
BEING PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH BEGINNING 
TO EXHIBIT FORMATIVE WRAPPING. A 06230Z SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED A 
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE 
LLCC, AND PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE POSITION AND INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE 
(15-20KT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96B WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA WHILE 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
070800Z.//
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