ABIO10 PGTW 060830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/060830Z-061800ZDEC2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.7N 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 608 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH 
IS BEING PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH 
BEGINNING TO EXHIBIT FORMATIVE WRAPPING. A 06230Z SCATTEROMETER PASS 
REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS 
SURROUNDING THE LLCC, AND PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE 
POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND 
WESTWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) ON THE 
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
96B WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE 
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING UP TO TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 060800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT FLARING 
CONVECTION COMPLETELY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 06433Z ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE REVEALED A 
WINDFIELD OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE PRESUMED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE 
CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AIDED 
BY A SMALL POINT SOURCE ABOVE IT AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH, 
WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND SLOWLY BE ENGULFED BY 
INTENSE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(1) TO HIGH AND 
ADDED LOW AREA IN 2.B.(1).//
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