ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/051800Z-
061800ZDEC2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 
99.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 91.2E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST-NORTHWEST 
OF NICOBAR ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 051224Z 37GHZ SATELLITE PASS DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION IN 
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC). A PARTIAL PASS FROM A 051551Z METOP-B ASCAT ALSO REVEALS A LLC 
BEGINNING TO FORM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NICOBAR ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS 96B TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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