ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZDEC2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 65.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 64.4E, APPROXIMATELY 684 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021246Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS SPARSE CONVECTION EAST OF AN OBSCURED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAIRLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH  WARM (27-28C) SST, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL STEADILY TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN