ABIO10 PGTW 011800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/011800Z- 021800ZDEC2022// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.9S 65.6E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY AND A 011307Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS SPARSE CONVECTION NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK (5-10 KNOTS) VWS. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR 96S TO STEADILY TRACK SOUTH AND ONLY SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT GRADUALLY IMPROVES BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN