ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/211800Z-
221800ZNOV2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.7N 84.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 81.7E, APPROXIMATELY 154 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211537Z 
GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LLCC.  A 211541Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS PRESENT ALONG 
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW AND WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY 
SIGNIFICANT (20-25 KTS) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUSTAINED 
MARGINAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.8S 111.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 113.6E, APPROXIMATELY 662 NM NORTH 
OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION 
ABOVE A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODEST 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS, AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94S WILL 
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH NEGLIGIBLE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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