ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZNOV2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.4N 108.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED, ALBEIT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH 
OF THE LLC. A 210207Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE LLC HAS OPENED ON THE 
NORTH SIDE AND IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A WEAK TROUGH WITH A SWATH OF 15-KT 
WIND BARBS TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL 
CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE 
FLARING CONVECTION AND WARM (28C) SST IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY 
BEFORE DISSIPATING OR MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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