ABIO10 PGTW 201800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZNOV2022// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 85.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 84.8E, APPROXIMATELY 277 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201226Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A VERY ELONGATED, WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC A CLUSTER OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 201602Z ASCAT-B 25KM IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SHARP TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD; A LARGE SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS IS PRESENT ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WARM SST VALUES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATE A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUSTAINED MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 108.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 111.0E, APPROXIMATELY 710 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLC. A BULLSEYE 201317Z GMI 89GHZ PASS REVEALS LOOSE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LLC WITH 30KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20KTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN