ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZNOV2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.2N 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 85.9E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 191547Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WARM SST VALUES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SLOW, MEANDERING WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUSTAINED MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.6S 107.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 108.7E, APPROXIMATELY 714 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. A 
PARTIAL 191435Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 10-15 KT WINDS TO THE 
NORTHEAST OF THE LLC WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OF 20 KTS TO THE 
SOUTH. CURRENTLY 94S IS SITUATED UNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES 
RESULTING IN HIGH (25-30KT) VWS AND AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT. SST REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 27C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG 
AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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