ABIO10 PGTW 181800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZNOV2022// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2N 87.6E, APPROXIMATELY 444 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A BROAD LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. AN 181252Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SCATTERED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN 181504Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BUT WEAKER WINDS (10-15 KNOTS) ELSEWHERE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH NAVGEM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM NEAR LANDFALL; THE OTHER MODELS INDICATE MUCH WEAKER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 105.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 107.1E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. A 181456Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH WEAK WINDS (5-10 KTS) IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS (20-25 KTS) TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. 94S IS NOW STUCK BENEATH PERSISTENT, HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VWS. 94S STILL HAS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27C AND STRONG 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURES IN ITS FAVOR BUT THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST OF JAVA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN